根據(jù)聯(lián)合國世界旅游組織新發(fā)布的《世界旅游晴雨表》，全球旅游業(yè)正在持續(xù)以強勁速度復蘇。

Worldwide tourism continues to recover at a strong pace, according to the newly released UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

2022年第一季度，全球旅游目的地的國際入境人數(shù)幾乎是2021年同期的三倍，其中歐洲引領整個行業(yè)的反彈。

Globally, destinations welcomed almost three times as many international arrivals in the first quarter of 2022 as in the same period of 2021, with Europe leading the sector’s rebound.

根據(jù)《世界旅游晴雨表》數(shù)字，全球旅游業(yè)在2022年1月至3月同比增長182%，全球旅游目的地迎來了約1.17億名國際游客，而這一數(shù)字在2021年第一季度僅為 4100萬。

According to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, international tourism saw a 182% year-on-year increase in January-March 2022, with destinations worldwide welcoming an estimated 117 million international arrivals compared to just 41 million in Q1 2021.

在前三個月新增的7600萬名國際游客中，有4700萬是在3月份增加的，表明復蘇步伐正在加快。

Of the extra 76 million international arrivals for the first three months, about 47 million were recorded in March, showing that the recovery is gathering pace.

歐美引領行業(yè)復蘇

Europe and Americas lead the recovery

世界旅游組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2022年第一季度，歐洲接待的國際游客人數(shù)（280%）幾乎是2021年第一季度的四倍，這一趨勢來自歐洲范圍內(nèi)強勁需求的推動。在美洲，入境人數(shù)與去年同期相比增加了一倍多（117%）。然而，歐洲和美洲的入境人數(shù)仍分別比2019年的水平下降了43%和46%。

UNWTO data shows that during the first quarter of 2022, Europe welcomed almost four times as many international arrivals (280%) as in Q1 of 2021, with results driven by strong intra-regional demand. In the Americas, arrivals more than doubled (117%) in the same three months. However, arrivals in Europe and the Americas were still -43% and -46% below 2019 levels respectively.

與2021年相比，中東（132%）和非洲（96%）在 2022 年第一季度也出現(xiàn)了強勢增長，但入境人數(shù)仍分別比2019年下降59%和61%。亞太地區(qū)比2021年增長了64%，但由于亞太地區(qū)內(nèi)多個目的地仍禁止非必要旅行，因此比2019年同期減少93%。

The Middle East (132%) and Africa (96%) also saw strong growth in Q1 2022 compared to 2021, but arrivals remained -59% and -61% below 2019 levels respectively. Asia and the Pacific recorded a 64% increase over 2021 but again, levels were -93% below 2019 numbers as several destinations remained closed to non-essential travel.

按區(qū)域劃分，加勒比海區(qū)及歐洲南地中海地區(qū)繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)最快的復蘇速度。在這兩個區(qū)域，入境人數(shù)都恢復到了2019年近75%的水平，一些目的地達到甚至超過了疫情前水平。

By subregion, the Caribbean and Southern Mediterranean Europe continue to show the fastest rates of recovery. In both, arrivals recovered to nearly 75% of 2019 levels, with some destinations reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

旅游目的地逐步開放

Destinations opening up

盡管全球旅游業(yè)仍比2019年水平降低61%，但隨著更多目的地放松或解除旅行限制，以及被壓抑的需求得到釋放，預計行業(yè)將在2022年繼續(xù)逐步復蘇。截至6月2日，45個旅游目的地（其中31個在歐洲）解除了任何與疫情相關的入境限制。在亞洲，越來越多的目的地也開始放寬旅行限制。

Although international tourism remains -61% below 2019 levels, the gradual recovery is expected to continue throughout 2022, as more destinations ease or lift travel restrictions and pent-up demand is unleashed. As of 2 June, 45 destinations (of which 31 are in Europe) had no COVID-19 related restrictions in place. In Asia, an increasing number of destinations have started to ease those restrictions.

世界旅游組織表示，盡管前景積極，但充滿挑戰(zhàn)的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境以及俄烏沖突，對國際旅游業(yè)的持續(xù)復蘇構(gòu)成了下行風險。

Despite these positive prospects, a challenging economic environment coupled with the military offensive of the Russian Federation in Ukraine pose a downside risk to the ongoing recovery of international tourism, UNWTO said.

該組織評論道：“到目前為止，俄烏沖突擾亂了東歐旅行市場，但對于全球旅游業(yè)復蘇的直接影響有限。然而，這場沖突正在全球范圍內(nèi)產(chǎn)生重大的經(jīng)濟影響，加劇了本已居高不下的油價和整體通脹，并擾亂了國際供應鏈，從而導致旅游業(yè)的交通和住宿成本上升?！?/span>

It commented: “The Russian offensive on Ukraine seems to have had a limited direct impact on overall results so far, although it is disrupting travel in Eastern Europe. However, the conflict is having major economic repercussions globally, exacerbating already high oil prices and overall inflation and disrupting international supply chains, which results in higher transport and accommodation costs for the tourism sector.”

未來復蘇勢頭超出預期

Stronger than expected recovery ahead

最新的世界旅游組織信心指數(shù)明顯上升。自疫情開始以來，該指數(shù)首次回到2019年的水平，這反映了全球旅游專家的樂觀情緒正在上漲，這源于被壓抑的強勁旅游需求，尤其是歐洲內(nèi)部和美國前往歐洲的旅行。

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index showed a marked uptick. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the index returned to levels of 2019, reflecting rising optimism among tourism experts worldwide, building on strong pent-up demand, in particular intra-European travel and US travel to Europe.

根據(jù)世界旅游組織專家小組的最新調(diào)查，與2021年相比，絕大多數(shù)旅游專業(yè)人士（83%）認為2022年的前景比2021年更好，只要病毒得到控制且目的地繼續(xù)放寬或取消旅行限制。然而，一些主要出境市場（主要是亞太地區(qū)）的持續(xù)關閉，以及俄烏沖突帶來的不確定性，可能會延遲國際旅游業(yè)的有效復蘇。

According to the latest UNWTO Panel of Experts survey, an overwhelming majority of tourism professionals (83%) see better prospects for 2022 compared to 2021, as long as the virus is contained and destinations continue to ease or lift travel restrictions. However, the ongoing closure of some major outbound markets, mostly in Asia and the Pacific, as well as the uncertainty derived from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could delay the effective recovery of international tourism.

越來越多的專家（48%）目前認為，國際游客可能會在2023年恢復到2019年的水平（ 這一比例在1月份的調(diào)查中為32%）。認為要到2024年或更久才能恢復的專家比例，從一月份的64%下降到了44%。

A higher number of experts (48%) now see a potential return of international arrivals to 2019 levels in 2023 (from 32% in the January survey), while the percentage indicating this could happen in 2024 or later (44%) has diminished compared to the January survey (64%).

與此同時，截至4月底，美洲、非洲、歐洲、北大西洋和中東的國際航空運載力已達到或接近疫情前水平的80%；航運需求也在恢復。

Meanwhile by end April, international air capacity across the Americas, Africa, Europe, North Atlantic and the Middle East has reached or is close to 80% of pre-crisis levels and demand is following.

由于2022年第一季度的業(yè)績強于預期、航班預訂量顯著增加以及信心指數(shù)的上升，世界旅游組織對2022年的展望進行了調(diào)整。

UNWTO has revised its outlook for 2022 due to stronger-than-expected results in the first quarter of 2022, a significant increase in flight reservations, and prospects from the UNWTO Confidence Index.

預計在2022年，國際游客人數(shù)將達到2019年水平的55%至70%，這取決于多種情況，包括目的地繼續(xù)解除旅行限制的速度、俄烏戰(zhàn)爭的演變、疫情再度爆發(fā)的可能性及全球經(jīng)濟狀況，特別是通貨膨脹和能源價格。

International tourist arrivals are now expected to reach 55% to 70% of 2019 levels in 2022, depending on several circumstances including the rate at which destinations continue to lift travel restrictions, the evolution of the war in Ukraine, possible new outbreaks of coronavirus and global economic conditions, particularly inflation and energy prices.

來源：穆迪達維特免稅報告

Source：Moodie Davitt